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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.